Monday, March 30, 2020

Credible COVID-19 Data

There is a lot of absolutely bizarre claims coming out of the US media lately that I'm not going to comment on yet other then say we are receiving conflicting reports from the US about verified numbers. I don't trust the Main Stream Media since it's so sensational and so toxic. However, there is a website put out by the South Korean government that I do trust.

Update: Unfortunately, the data on that website has now become compromised.

Since South Korea flattened the curve without a lock down, it is worth looking at their data. The chart states that as of yesterday, the United States had 2,968 deaths from Covid-19 with an additional 368 deaths in the last 24 hours. So although that isn't close to the 80,000 deaths from the flu in 2018, the speed at which that number is increasing is a valid concern.

Canada had 86 deaths as of yesterday with an additional 21 deaths in the last 24 hours. That is already more than the 82 deaths Canada had from the flu in 2018. I had no idea Italy had such a large population. The United States has a population of 331 million while Italy has a population of 60 million. Although France has a population of 67 million and Germany has a population of 83 million, Italy's population density is much higher.

"Italy is a densely populated country, with an average density of 533 people per square mile. In comparison, Germany has a population density of 235 people per square mile while the U.S. has 94. Two-thirds of Italians live in urban areas that are even more dense."

The Conversation lists five reasons COVID-19 has hit Italy so hard. 1. Lots of old people 2. Close proximity 3. Dense population 4. Northern Italy is a business hub 5. Massive number of cases.

That explains why the fatality rate is higher in Italy. In the US the fatality rate from COVID-19 is 1.8%. In Canada it's 1.2%. The fatality rate in Italy is 11.4%. In Spain it's 8.8%. France is 6.8% and the UK is 6.6%. Norway the fatality rate is 0.7%. Sweden is 3.6% while Denmark is 3.0%.

So if you get Covid-19 in Canada or the US there is a strong likelihood you will survive with only mild symptoms. That is why I'm saying it's time to let nonessential bushiness open on a volunteer basis. Far more people are going to die from losing their job then from the virus.

I will also point out that the 1.2% and 1.7% fatality rate is much lower in real life. That number is based on confirmed cases. Most people who have the virus recover from it without getting tested. Here if you have all the symptoms and call that number they will not test you unless you have severe symptoms or are a health care worker. There are only so many tests available and it's very invasive. My point it, most people who get the virus survive from it and the fatality rate is much lower that 1.2% in real life because very few people get tested.

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